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But what if it’s not fine? Even back in 1996, before a single component of the ISS was launched into orbit, NASA foresaw the possibility of an even worse worst-case scenario: an uncontrolled reentry. The crux of this scenario involves multiple systems failing in an improbable but not completely impossible cascade. Cabin depressurization could damage the avionics. The electrical power system could go offline, along with thermal control and data handling. Without these, systems controlling coolant and even propellant could break down. Unmoored, the ISS would edge slowly toward Earth, maybe over a year or two, with no way to control where it is headed or where its debris might land. And no, we could not save ourselves by blowing the station up. This would be extremely dangerous and almost certainly create an enormous amount of space trash—which is how we got into this hypothetical mess in the first place.

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Smetters, whose model is widely used in Washington D.C. to analyze the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of federal policy, has Beltway policy chops including a stint as an economist at the Congressional Budget Office and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the U.S. Treasury. He has advised Congress on dynamic scoring, and consults with policymakers from both parties on major tax and spending legislation. Smetters has described PWBM as a “sandbox” for legislators to workshop economic policy ideas.

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